Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.2%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 23, 24, 6:06 PM UTCJan 3, 60, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?
Manifold MarketsWill peak plastic production occur within a year of peak oil?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if the emergence of AGI and the invasion of Taiwan occur within 1 calendar year (12 months) of each other.
