Current community forecast
No 60.8%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleDec 22, 24, 10:11 PM UTCJan 5, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?
Manifold MarketsWill Riemann hypothesis be proven or refuted before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before the Collatz Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?
KalshiWhen will the Riemann hypothesis win the Millennium Prize?
KalshiRules
Resolves as YES if the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another before January 1st 2050.
- If valid proofs of neither have been unveiled by this question's end date, then question resolves as N/A. If a valid proof of one is published/revealed on or after January 1st 2049, but a valid proof of the other is not made public at this question's closing date, then it resolves as N/A. The dates considered are those when the proofs become public knowledge for the first time (simply being left on a public webserver does not count, there must be substantial academic awareness of the proof).
- The final verification of a proof does not have to occur rapidly after the date on which is first becomes known in the context of this question.
- If a verified proof of one becomes known on or before December 31st 2048, but no verified proof of the other becomes known in the subsequent 12 months -- and there is sufficient confidence/evidence that any credible candidate proofs of the other which emerge in the subsequent 12 month period are not valid -- then this question resolves as NO.
- Proofs that either demonstrate these conjectures/hypotheses or show that they are undecidable are both considered valid in the context of this question.
