Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastCollatz conjecture is true 84.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 22, 3:57 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
If someone publishes a counterexample Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves to that number.
- If someone publishes a proof of Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves #1.
- If this market doesn't resolve by the end of 2049, it resolves N/A. Apr 14, 12:08am: This was inspired by my Discord conversation with Gurkenglas about free-response market mechanisms.
- The point was to test / demonstrate a specific type of market failure with the current mechanism.
- Note: When I created this market the answers were numbered. #1 refers to the first answer submitted, in this case "the named outcome".
