Current community forecast
Yes 51%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 25, 2:39 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?
Manifold MarketsWill Riemann hypothesis be proven or refuted before 2050?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Riemann hypothesis win the Millennium Prize?
KalshiFurther substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Gary Marcus has made a public statement suggesting that deep learning models are not capable of reasoning after a valid proof of the Riemann hypothesis has been made public.
- The underlying mathematics of this proof must have been generated/discovered by an AI system which leverages deep learning as one of its core mechanisms.
- Limited human authorship on top of the AI-discovered proof regarding the original publication is permissible provided this extends only to things such as formatting, ordering and explanations of various steps.
- This must take place before January 1st 2050 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
- If a qualifying proof is made public, and Gary Marcus makes such a statement between the time of publication and the time when the proof is broadly considered as being valid by the mathematics community, then this question resolves YES (provided that this proof becomes considered valid before 2050).
- If no such credible proof is published before January 1st 2050, then this question resolves as NO.