Current community forecast
No 59.4%
Forecasters
397
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Feb 20, 23, 10:38 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves positively if Marcus (or someone else fulfilling his role) can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.
- This won't resolve positively if he has to use bizarre hacking-like tricks, for example things equivalent to the SolidGoldMagikarp token.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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+3 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
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- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors? resolve?
- In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves positively if Marcus (or someone else fulfilling his role) can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.