Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.7%
Forecasters
139
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 24, 6:57 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
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Manifold MarketsRules
Miles Brundage, former head of policy research at OpenAI, and Gary Marcus, NYU neuroscientist, have made a public bet about AI progress (details on Gary Marcus's Substack) that we will not see AGI by the end of 2027.
- They're operationalizing that as 8 out of the following 10 things being feasible in principle by AI:
- Understand everything about a new movie that a human does, just by watching it.
- Same but for novels.
- Write hallucination-free biographies/obituaries of New York Times quality.
- Master almost any new video game as fast as a human can.
