Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.3%Leader of 14 outcomes
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.3%Forecasters
43
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 25, 12:19 PM UTCJan 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.
- The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027