At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors??

Manifold Markets prices No at 80.5% as of October 25, 2026.

When does At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors? resolve?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.

How is At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A duplicate of @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.6M

24h Vol

$81.3K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+1.4pt51.3%
• Gemini-3.4pt35.4%
• ChatGPT-0.1pt

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+1.0pt8%

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-0.3pt90.9%
• Anthropic+0.5pt8.1%
• OpenAI-0.1pt1%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+0.5pt29%
• $2.0–$2.25T+0.3pt19%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.4pt18%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 675T tokens+16.0pt99.5%
• Above 650T tokens+33.0pt99.5%

• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?