Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 59%
Forecasters
81
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 24, 8:46 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsWill "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
A duplicate of @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria.
- This market resolves based on the behavior of all leading chatbots at the beginning of 2028.
- (Only ones that can actually be tested.)
- Resolves YES if people can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which any leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.
- Only the LLM portion of the chatbot is being tested here.
- Image-recognition and generation capabilities are not.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors? resolve?
- At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A duplicate of @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria.