Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffAI1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 36 minutes ago
Jul 25, 26, 6:36 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative learning, not RL is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
