Current community forecast
No 55.6%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 3:10 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold Marketswill people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
Manifold MarketsWill the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, as of December 31, 2028, at least half of the top 15 of all evaluated individuals by average Elo rating across the language models tracked on the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) AI Values Dashboard (https://values.safe.ai/) or the best replication of it are pro AI safety.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Current top rated AI safety people include:
- Yoshua Bengio
- Stuart Russell
