Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized for at least non-Muslims in any Muslim-majority country before 2030?
One-OffPoliticsSociety & Culture3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.4%
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 23, 11:06 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has).
- But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.
- ! Doesn't need to qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, since this specific question allows for partial legalization for specific populations.
- Instead it's maybe useful to compare with this map. !
- For this question, a country is a state party within the United Nations System or recognised by at least one UN member state.
- And: a Muslim-majority country is a country with 50% or more of the population counted as Muslim by reliable sources when the decision to legalize same-sex marriage union was decided.
