Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in the Americas before 2030?
One-OffPoliticsSociety & Culture3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.7%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 23, 10:54 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
North or South America.
- "Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has).
- But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.
- Must qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, though changes to that map are not required for this question to resolve YES.
- Part of a series:
- @/Stralor/will-samesex-marriage-be-newly-lega-858e77296c28
