Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?
PoliticsOne-OffCrime & JusticeCryptoElectionRegulation6dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Nov 4, 23, 10:31 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2033?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if any of his 7 convictions are overturned or he asks for and gets a resentencing.
- Resolves NO when his direct appeal is over or his time to appeal has lapsed, e.g. cert denied at SCOTUS.
- Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A presidential pardon does not count as a successful appeal and would resolve the market NO.
