Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 9, 23, 3:04 PM UTCNov 17, 80, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
Manifold MarketsSam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+2.5pt65%
- Yes-2.5pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $31.8K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $578.1K
- 24h Vol
- $16K
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+3.0pt84.2%
- No-3.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $785.6K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 307%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No86%
- Yes-3.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $670.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison? resolve?
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison? is scheduled to resolve on November 17, 2080.