Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 80%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 22, 1:45 AM UTCDec 31, 32, 10:17 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.
- Prosecutorial discretion doesn't count.
- Jury nullification doesn't count.
- Judicial sentencing discretion doesn't count.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 resolve?
- Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2032.
- How is Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.