Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 22, 1:45 AM UTCDec 31, 32, 10:17 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Donald Trump gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.
- Prosecutorial discretion doesn't count.
- Jury nullification doesn't count.
- Judicial sentencing discretion doesn't count.
