Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 68.1%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 24, 3:41 PM UTCJul 14, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
Manifold MarketsWill the war in Ukraine end before the Iranian war?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRules
will resolve after a peace agreement that gives up some territory (and then in a few years a Russian puppet is installed) or Total surrender
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for will Russia win the war in Ukraine?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does will Russia win the war in Ukraine resolve?
- will Russia win the war in Ukraine is scheduled to resolve on July 14, 2028.
- How is will Russia win the war in Ukraine settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: will resolve after a peace agreement that gives up some territory (and then in a few years a Russian puppet is installed) or Total surrender