Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?
GeopoliticsOne-OffEntertainmentMusicRussia / Ukraine13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60.9%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingFeb 8, 24, 3:32 PM UTCFeb 16, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
I'll define the end of the war as either a negotiated peace agreement, the dissolution of the Ukrainian state or army, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, or general consensus among reputable journalism outlets that the war is over.
- I'll define autonomous drone swarms by the following criteria
- While they can be instructed by humans, the individual drones of the swarm have to act autonomously
- A "swarm" has to include five or more drones acting in concert
- A "drone" is an insect whose role it is to serve the hive's queen.
- I am not an entomologist so I am happy to receive feedback on this definition.