Will the war in Ukraine end before the Iranian war?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 26, 2:35 AM UTCJun 13, 28, 1:33 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Ukraine-Russia war ends before the US-Israeli war with Iran ends.
- This market resolves NO if the Iran war ends first or if both wars end on the same date.
- Resolution is based on a formal ceasefire agreement (Lasting at least 2 weeks without branching), a peace treaty, or an official declaration by the Ukrainian and Russian governments that active hostilities have ceased.
- The same applies to the Israeli/US - Iranian governments.
- The ending date for this market will be the date that either war ends.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the war in Ukraine end before the Iranian war??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the war in Ukraine end before the Iranian war? resolve?
- Will the war in Ukraine end before the Iranian war? is scheduled to resolve on June 13, 2028.
- How is Will the war in Ukraine end before the Iranian war? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria