Will Russia occupy Dnipro ( Dnepropetrovs'k ) at the end of 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.7%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 26, 10:01 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Russian forces establish full military control over the city of Dnipro by December 31, 2026.
- Full control means Russian forces occupy the city proper and maintain administrative authority over it.
- The resolution will be determined by official statements from the Ukrainian government, Russian government, or verified reports from established military monitoring organizations such as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) or DeepState.
- If the city remains under Ukrainian control or is only partially occupied, the market resolves NO.
- Dnipro was not successfully captured by Russian forces during the initial 2022 offensive, but did suffer heavy shelling by Russian artillery.