Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.4%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 13, 26, 4:11 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if both of the following conditions are met on or before December 31, 2027:
- Losing the Premiership: Following the next Israeli legislative election (scheduled by October 27, 2026, or held earlier as a snap election), Benjamin Netanyahu is not the Prime Minister of Israel in the government successfully sworn in immediately after that election.
- Relocating to Miami: Within six months of the newly formed government being sworn in (and no later than December 31, 2027), Benjamin Netanyahu leaves Israel and takes up residence in the Miami metropolitan area (or South Florida) for a continuous period of at least 30 days.
- This must be confirmed by reputable national or international news organizations (e.g., The Times of Israel, Reuters, Associated Press, or The New York Times).
- This market will resolve to NO if:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Netanyahu lose the election and run away to Miami??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Netanyahu lose the election and run away to Miami? resolve?
- Will Netanyahu lose the election and run away to Miami? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Netanyahu lose the election and run away to Miami? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria