Will any GOP member of the US Congress lose their 2026 election to a candidate endorsed by Elon Musk?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.4%
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15
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 1, 25, 12:27 AM UTCDec 2, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Elon Musk-endorsed candidate can be another Republican winning in a Republican primary against the incumbent, in which case the results of the general election for that seat will be ignored, or a member of any party (including another Republican in the states with non-partisan general elections) winning in a general election.
- Only the midterm elections on 11/3/2026 will be considered.
- Endorsement will be confirmed by Musk's public statements or reliable reports of Musk's campaign contributions.