Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 20, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 20, 2029 53.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 20, 2029 53.5%Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.6
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$32.8K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 20, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 43 minutes ago
Apr 14, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
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Market depth · Before Jan 20, 2029
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If any Republican member of Congress calls for the impeachment of the President of the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the United States Senatethe United States House of Representativesthe Congressional RecordThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalCNNFox NewsMSNBCBloomberg NewsAxiosABCCBSNBC
- Statements must be clear, unambiguous, and current. This includes any of the following: Introducing articles of impeachment (if applicable) Co-sponsoring articles of impeachment (if applicable) Voting for articles of impeachment (if applicable) Clear, unambiguous, and explicit statements supporting impeachment such as "the person supports impeachment of the President" or "the person believes the President should be impeached" Posts on official social media accounts, press releases, or legislative websites expressing that impeachment should proceed. The call for impeachment is still encompassed by the Payout Criterion even if subsequently retracted. The following do NOT qualify: Vague or implicit references that do not clearly advocate for impeachment, such as expressions of concern or dissatisfaction with presidential conduct that do not explicitly mention impeachment Statements criticizing the President's actions or policies, statements of process or neutrality, e.g., "Let's wait for the investigation" or "The House should explore impeachment" without a personal endorsement Statements contingent on future events, such as "If X happens, then I will support impeachment" or "We may need to consider impeachment if more evidence emerges" Statements made prior to Issuance, and "likes" or "retweets" on social media of other individuals calling for impeachment without additional commentary
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 20, 2029
- If any Republican member of Congress calls for the impeachment of the President of the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If any Republican member of Congress calls for the impeachment of the President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If any Republican member of Congress calls for the impeachment of the President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If any Republican member of Congress calls for the impeachment of the President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
