Will 5 Republican members of Congress call for Trump to resign before the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2mo
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90%
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16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 25, 10:25 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
If 5 or more Republican members of Congress give statements that, by my judgment, constitute a call for Trump to resign, by the end of 2025, this will resolve YES.
- Independent members of Congress caucusing with the Republicans do not count.
- Senators or Representatives.
- Current, not former (could be in lame duck session).
- Any statements from before market creation do not count.
- If Trump DOES resign (or announce he is going to resign), and 5+ Republican members of Congress release statements affirming / commending / supporting this decision, that will qualify to resolve this YES as well.