Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsRegulationEquities2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.9%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 7, 26, 10:18 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?
KalshiWill 5 Republican members of Congress call for Trump to resign before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in 2026, will Congress ban its members from trading individual stocks before Jan 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic stock begin public trading on or before November 6, 2026?
Manifold MarketsNasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a U.S. federal law is officially enacted (either signed by the President or passed via congressional veto override) on or before December 31, 2026, that legally prohibits members of the U.S. House of Representatives and/or the U.S. Senate from buying and/or selling individual, publicly traded stocks.
- To resolve the market to YES, the legislation must satisfy the following conditions:
- Enactment Date: The law must be officially enacted before January 1, 2027.
- The implementation or grace period for compliance (e.g., divestment deadlines) can extend beyond this date, as long as the bill is codified into law before the cutoff.
- Allowed Exemptions: A law will still qualify for a YES resolution if it permits members of Congress to invest in diversified assets (e.g., mutual funds, ETFs, index funds, treasury bills) or to utilize qualified blind trusts.