Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 53.3%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleJul 30, 26, 5:35 PM UTCSep 1, 28, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
I'm broadly an index-fund investor, but both of the times I've believed particularly strongly that I should buy a particular stock at a particular moment (Nvidia after the Deepseek moment, SK Hynix yesterday), it seems to have worked out well for me.
- I've invested a bit in other individual stocks and I'm sure I've beaten the market overall with those as well but during my time investing it has largely been a bull market so I don't put much stock (heh) in that.
- From market close 08/28/26 to market close 09/01/28 I will track the performance of the S&P 500 vs the performance of my non-index investments, expressed in annual average return.
- This market resolves NO if the former offers a better return over that time, YES if the latter does.
- The title refers to individual stock trading, but if I decide at some point to trade options or invest in other assets, their performance would be included as well.
- I will include cash-on-hand that is not part of my checking account or emergency fund as part of my non-index investments for calculating return purposes.
