X
KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Nov 1, 2026, 4:00 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 3:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
NoWon
YesLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any member of Congress be expelled in 2026?
KalshiWill another member of the U.S Congress be expelled before 2030?
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KalshiWhich member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?
KalshiWill Ilhan Omar be a Member of Congress at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a death of more than one member of Congress in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersUnited States House of RepresentativesUnited States SenateCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- Any member of Congress must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
