Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
One-OffMiddle EastUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsPolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80.5%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 26, 3:15 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Mojtaba Khamenei was announced by the Assembly of Experts as the new supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
- This market resolves YES if Mojtaba Khamenei remains Iran's supreme leader on 1 January 2027.
- It resolves NO if he is no longer the supreme leader by that date due to death, removal, resignation, or any other reason.
- Resolution will be determined by official statements from Iran's government or credible international news sources confirming his status as supreme leader on the specified date.
- An election for the third supreme leader of Iran was held in early March 2026, following the assassination of Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026 during the 2026 Iran war.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027? resolve?
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria