Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
One-OffMiddle EastUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsPolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 83.7%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMar 11, 26, 3:15 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Mojtaba Khamenei was announced by the Assembly of Experts as the new supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
- This market resolves YES if Mojtaba Khamenei remains Iran's supreme leader on 1 January 2027.
- It resolves NO if he is no longer the supreme leader by that date due to death, removal, resignation, or any other reason.
- Resolution will be determined by official statements from Iran's government or credible international news sources confirming his status as supreme leader on the specified date.
- An election for the third supreme leader of Iran was held in early March 2026, following the assassination of Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026 during the 2026 Iran war.
