Will Keith Rabois win his (not actual) bet against Nate Silver?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Keith Rabois win his (not actual) bet against Nate Silver??

Manifold Markets prices No at 82.7% as of November 2, 2026.

When does Will Keith Rabois win his (not actual) bet against Nate Silver? resolve?

Will Keith Rabois win his (not actual) bet against Nate Silver? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.

How is Will Keith Rabois win his (not actual) bet against Nate Silver? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Reps win at least five out of the six following Senate races:

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POLYMARKET

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)

• None+6.0pt32%
• IA+0.9pt11%
• IA, KS-5.0pt7%

+125 more outcomes

Total Vol

$34.9M

24h Vol

$14M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep+3.0pt73.5%
• D-House, R-Senate-4.0pt22.5%
• Republicans sweep

KALSHI

Who will control the House?

• Democratic Party+0.2pt93.8%
• Republican Party-0.2pt6.2%

Total Vol

$99.7M

24h Vol

$8.2M

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico+7.0pt75.5%
• Ken Paxton-6.0pt25.5%

Total Vol

$71.8M

24h Vol

$7.2M

KALSHI

Michigan Senate winner?

• Abdul El-Sayed+7.0pt77.5%
• Mike Rogers-7.0pt22.5%

Total Vol

$21.1M

24h Vol

$5.1M

POLYMARKET

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

• Democrats Sweep+3.0pt72.3%
• R Senate, D-1.0pt21.8%
• Republicans Sweep5%

+2 more outcomes

• Who will control the Senate?
• Which party will win the House in 2026?
• Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
• Presidential Election Winner 2028
• How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
• 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
• Texas Senate Election Winner
• Maine Senate winner?
• Texas Governor winner?
• Michigan Senate Election Winner
• Florida Governor winner?