Will Israel occupy at least 5% of Syrian territory by EOY 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffSpaceGeopoliticsMiddle East4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.7%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 22, 26, 12:44 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Israel occupies at least 5% of Syrian territory by December 31, 2030.
- Syria has a total area of 185,180 square kilometers, making 5% approximately 9,259 square kilometers.
- Resolution will be determined by comparing the total area under Israeli military control in Syria (including the Golan Heights and any additional territory) against this threshold, using credible sources such as UN reports, international monitoring organizations, or verified satellite imagery assessments.
- Following the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, Israel invaded the demilitarized buffer zone in southwestern Syria adjacent to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and has continued to occupy it.
- Israel took advantage of the power vacuum created by the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to increase the amount of territory it controlled by several hundred square miles.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Israel occupy at least 5% of Syrian territory by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Israel occupy at least 5% of Syrian territory by EOY 2030? resolve?
- Will Israel occupy at least 5% of Syrian territory by EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Israel occupy at least 5% of Syrian territory by EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria