Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East4mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.9%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 9:29 PM UTCMar 16, 27, 9:28 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran exhausts its ballistic missile inventory before the coalition (US, Israel, and Gulf state allies) exhausts its air defense interceptor stockpile.
- This market resolves NO if the coalition exhausts its interceptor stockpile first.
- Resolution will be determined by daily launch count, interception rates, and official statements from the US Department of Defense, Israeli Ministry of Defense, or credible military intelligence assessments published by recognized defense analysis organizations (CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, etc.).
- The resolution date is March 16, 2027 (one year from market creation), but may be postponed or be brought forward, depending on how the war goes.
- Missile count: weekly average of 3 per day or lower, so long as iran is incapable of consistently hitting targets everyday, and there's no upward tend.