Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East6moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.9%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 9:29 PM UTCMar 16, 27, 9:28 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran exhausts its ballistic missile inventory before the coalition (US, Israel, and Gulf state allies) exhausts its air defense interceptor stockpile.
- This market resolves NO if the coalition exhausts its interceptor stockpile first.
- Resolution will be determined by daily launch count, interception rates, and official statements from the US Department of Defense, Israeli Ministry of Defense, or credible military intelligence assessments published by recognized defense analysis organizations (CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, etc.).
- The resolution date is March 16, 2027 (one year from market creation), but may be postponed or be brought forward, depending on how the war goes.
- Missile count: weekly average of 3 per day or lower, so long as iran is incapable of consistently hitting targets everyday, and there's no upward tend.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors? resolve?
- Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors? is scheduled to resolve on March 16, 2027.
- How is Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria