Will Trump threaten to restrict British access to Trident ballistic missiles before 2029?
US PoliticsOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 71.1%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 17, 25, 6:00 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The UK's nuclear deterrent relies heavily on US-supplied Trident ballistic missiles through the 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA).
- Unlike conventional weapons, the UK does not own these missiles outright but instead has title to a portion of a shared pool with the US Navy.
- This cooperation has been a cornerstone of US-UK defense relations for over 60 years.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump makes statements before 2029 that I, a reasonable centre-left British observer who will not bet, understand to contain an explicit or implicit threat to restrict British access to Trident missiles.
- Some examples of implicit threats:
