Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.9%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 20, 26, 2:59 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jose Luis Ricon get a intracortical electrode [eg neuropixels/axoft] to foundation-model his brain by EOY2042?
Manifold MarketsReal-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsWill a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029?
FutuurWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill humans colonize Mars before 2050?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a map of the human brain is made by end of 2029.
- Its quality should be at least the one of the map made of a fruit fly brain: https://www.science.org/content/article/complete-map-fruit-fly-brain-circuitry-unveiled.
- Otherwise, this resolves NO.
- The result should be publicly available.
- A counter example would be some result obtained through an unethical process hidden in a classified lab located in the Mariana Trench.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+5.3pt55%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $263.3K
- 24h Vol
- $145.6K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $31.5K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030+17.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-10.0pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029? resolve?
- Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a map of the human brain is made by end of 2029.