Will Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029?
One-OffHealth & MedicineTech3y
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 82%
No 82%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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$969.3
Low liquidityTraders
10
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1
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Updated 1 minute ago
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market predicts whether Elon Musk, co-founder and key figure behind Neuralink, will personally receive a Neuralink brain-computer interface implant in his own brain on or before December 31, 2029.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the following conditions are met:
- Elon Musk must undergo a surgical procedure to have a Neuralink brain implant device inserted into his own brain on or before December 31, 2029.The implantation must be confirmed through at least one of the following: A) official announcement from Neuralink, B) public statement or demonstration by Elon Musk himself, C) medical documentation or imagery clearly showing the implant, or D) consistent reporting from multiple credible news sources with direct evidenceThe implant must be a functional Neuralink device intended for ongoing use (even if it's a prototype), not merely a temporary demonstration or non-functional prototype.The implantation must be performed using Neuralink's technology, not a competing brain-computer interface from another company.For this market, an "implant" refers to a Neuralink device surgically inserted into Musk's brain tissue or attached to his brain in a manner consistent with Neuralink's clinical approach at the time of the procedure.
- The implant must be a functioning device capable of interfacing with Musk's brain activity.
- If Neuralink merges with or is acquired by another company but the core technology remains substantially the same, an implant from this successor entity would still qualify for a "YES" resolution.
