Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.2%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleNov 14, 23, 3:04 AM UTCJan 2, 33, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gavin Newsom be the next Democrat to become President of the United States?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if he wins the US national election in 2024, 2028, or 2032.
Open markets
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. Presidency before 2033??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. Presidency before 2033? resolve?
- Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. Presidency before 2033? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2033.
- How is Will Gavin Newsom win the U.S. Presidency before 2033? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if he wins the US national election in 2024, 2028, or 2032.