Will Federal Agents draw guns on voters on Election Day 2026
PoliticsOne-OffElectionUS PoliticsGeopoliticsCrime & Justice13d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.2%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Mar 21, 26, 10:56 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if federal agents (including FBI, ICE, DHS, or other federal law enforcement) draw firearms on voters at polling locations on Election Day 2026 (November 3, 2026).
- The act of drawing a gun must occur at or immediately adjacent to a polling place and be directed at or in the presence of voters.
- This market resolves NO if no such incident occurs by the end of Election Day 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by credible news reports from major outlets documenting the incident.
- Ambiguous cases (e.g., agents drawing weapons in response to an active threat unrelated to voting) will resolve NO unless the primary context is voter intimidation or election interference.
