Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.7%
Forecasters
281
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Feb 3, 26, 9:42 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- Federal law explicitly prohibits deploying federal troops or armed federal law enforcement to any polling place, with violations carrying criminal penalties including fines and imprisonment of up to five years.
- This market resolves YES if, during the 2026 midterm elections or 2028 presidential election, credible reporting documents the presence of active-duty military personnel, National Guard troops (when federalized), or federal law enforcement agents (including ICE, DHS, or FBI) stationed at, near, or with apparent intent to monitor voting booths or polling locations.
- The presence must be armed or in official capacity with election-related authority.
- Unarmed plainclothes poll observers or off-duty military members voting do not count.
- Resolution sources: news reports from major outlets (AP, Reuters, NPR, etc.), court filings, official statements from election officials or DOJ, or documented evidence from election monitoring organizations.