Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 4:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 83.3%
Forecasters
422
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 26, 23, 4:22 AM UTCJun 26, 60, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?
Manifold MarketsWill Robert Lichfield serve time in prison before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
Manifold MarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if and when Donald Trump goes to prison.
