Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Never 91.7%Leader of 10 outcomes
Never 91.7%Forecasters
2,597
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 23, 9:56 PM UTCDec 1, 29, 11:03 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence.
- Markets close will be extended as needed.
- What counts?
- Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
- Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
- Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
