Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 3:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastNever 90.4%+0.1%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
2,591
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleJun 29, 23, 9:56 PMDec 1, 29, 11:03 PM
Trends
0%
0.1%
0.4%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Never90%
Volume trend
$181Jul 810d of dataJul 23
Related Markets
Trump out as President before 2027?
$4KYes: 7%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
$3.5KYes: 19%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will be arrested in 2026?
$1.6KBarack Obama: 6%KALSHI
KALSHIWill SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?
$1.5KYes: 3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?
$1.5KYes: 5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Maduro Prison Time?
$1.4KNo prison time: 34%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
California duo accused of laundering crypto from fentanyl and meth salesCrypto News
LayerZero Executor Wallets Undergo Security Breach, $2.4 Million DrainedBlockchain ReporterRules
Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence.
- Markets close will be extended as needed.
- What counts?
- Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
- Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
- Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.