Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2029 7%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingOct 10, 23, 5:27 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsWhat new playable Super Smash Brothers characters will be added by 2028? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurWill the Live-Action Legend of Zelda movie be “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes? [Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsRules
A derivative market of @/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- Note that this is not just about when Trump begins serving time, but also about in which years he will still be serving time before his release/death.
- This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any year in which trump is serving a custodial sentence will resolve Yes.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]?
- Manifold Markets prices 2029 at 7% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] resolve?
- In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A derivative market of @/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned