Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2029 7%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 23, 5:27 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What new playable Super Smash Brothers characters will be added by 2028? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsWhen will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]
Manifold MarketsWill Mike Johnson ever attain a "higher status" in US politics? If so - when? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsHow will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketRules
A derivative market of @/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- Note that this is not just about when Trump begins serving time, but also about in which years he will still be serving time before his release/death.
- This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any year in which trump is serving a custodial sentence will resolve Yes.
