Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNever 91.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
67
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 23, 12:15 AM UTCFeb 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.1%
0.1%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurWill Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsRules
Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence.
- What counts?
- Prison, jail or the named outcome pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
- Prison, jail or the named outcome post-conviction counts.
- Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
- It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his sentence begins.
Open markets
Politics
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- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How will Trump serve time??
- Manifold Markets prices Never at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How will Trump serve time? resolve?
- How will Trump serve time? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2029.
- How is How will Trump serve time? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence.