Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNever 87.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
69
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 19, 23, 12:15 AM UTCFeb 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsWill Robert Lichfield serve time in prison before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurWill Trump pardon Gannon Ken Van Dyke before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence.
- What counts?
- Prison, jail or the named outcome pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
- Prison, jail or the named outcome post-conviction counts.
- Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
- It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his sentence begins.
