Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?
Crime & JusticeOne-Off4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.8%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 4, 25, 4:48 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 12:57 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolves to ‘Yes’ if José Sócrates is convicted in connection with the Operação Marquês case and serves any prison time from 2025 onward as part of that conviction.
- Pre-2025 imprisonment does not count, even if credited toward a later sentence.
- If he is sentenced but does not serve any additional time because his pre-2025 preventive detention exceeds or fully covers the sentence, the market resolves to ‘No’.
- Resolves to ‘No’ if he is acquitted or never serves prison time and no further appeals are possible.
- If unresolved, the market remains open until he either serves prison time (‘Yes’) or dies without serving any (‘No’).
