Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.1%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 26, 4:19 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ashley Moody win the Florida special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Angie Nixon win the Florida special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExHow many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?
PolymarketHow many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?
Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if a Democratic candidate wins the November 3, 2026 special election to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio's U.S. Senate term.
- The market resolves NO if a Republican candidate wins.
- The primary election will be held August 18, 2026, with the general election on November 3, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official results from the Florida Division of Elections.
- The special election was triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation to become United States Secretary of State in President Donald Trump's second administration.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- South Carolina Senate winner?
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- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Democrats win the 2026 Florida Special Senate Election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Democrats win the 2026 Florida Special Senate Election? resolve?
- Will Democrats win the 2026 Florida Special Senate Election? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Will Democrats win the 2026 Florida Special Senate Election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria