Will Democrats win the 2026 Florida Special Senate Election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms9d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90.5%
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11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 26, 4:19 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if a Democratic candidate wins the November 3, 2026 special election to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio's U.S. Senate term.
- The market resolves NO if a Republican candidate wins.
- The primary election will be held August 18, 2026, with the general election on November 3, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official results from the Florida Division of Elections.
- The special election was triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation to become United States Secretary of State in President Donald Trump's second administration.