Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.5%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 15, 24, 4:32 PM UTCMar 5, 45, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNATO downs another Russian drone by which date?
PolymarketUkraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?
Manifold MarketsUS Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a conflict or set of conflicts have become commonly referred to as "The Drone Wars".
- At least one of these conflicts this term refers to must have occurred between January 1st 2020 and December 31st 2029.
- If no such terminology has emerged by January 1st 2045, then this question resolves as NO.
- If there is weak evidence that this term is used, but no strong evidence that it is commonplace, then this question resolves as N/A.