Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsChina2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 76.3%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 8:56 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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