Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office?
US PoliticsOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 26, 6:42 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsWill construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve YES if:
- A triumphal arch is built off one end of the Arlington Bridge, across from the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C
- The arch is similar to the plans discussed in this article (i.e. around 250 feet in height, similar in design -- plans linked here).
- I reserve the right to exercise my discretion in determining whether the final arch is sufficiently similar to this plan.
- Construction is completed by noon on January 20th, 2029, when Trump leaves office.
- It will resolve NO otherwise, including if an arch is built but its design/size are completely different, it is in a substantially different location, or construction has commenced but is not completed.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office? resolve?
- Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve YES if: