Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 75.5%
Forecasters
61
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 8:54 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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by my judgement
- @/strutheo/will-china-invade-the-kinmen-island
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office? resolve?
- Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: by my judgement