Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet this quarter?

PoliticsOne-OffEurope US Politics Election2mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 25, 2026, 9:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

2024-Q3 0%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Jul 7, 24, 6:39 AMSep 30, 26, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

2024-Q3

2024-Q4

100%

2025-Q1

100%

2025-Q2

2025-Q3

100%

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

2026-Q458%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Resolves YES if any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet in a listed calendar quarter (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep, Oct-Dec).
Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.
Losing one cabinet role when multiple are held (and thus remaining in cabinet) does not count as leaving.
All cabinet members being replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election will resolve YES.
The only cabinet positions that will cause this to resolve are those listed under the "Cabinet Ministers" section of the webpage above.

Volume trend

$10

Jul 1011d of dataJul 25

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Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet this quarter?

PoliticsOne-OffEurope US Politics Election2mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 25, 2026, 9:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

2024-Q3 0%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Jul 7, 24, 6:39 AMSep 30, 26, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

2024-Q3

2024-Q4

100%

2025-Q1

100%

2025-Q2

2025-Q3

100%

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

2026-Q458%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Resolves YES if any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet in a listed calendar quarter (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep, Oct-Dec).
Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.
Losing one cabinet role when multiple are held (and thus remaining in cabinet) does not count as leaving.
All cabinet members being replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election will resolve YES.
The only cabinet positions that will cause this to resolve are those listed under the "Cabinet Ministers" section of the webpage above.

Volume trend

$10

Jul 1011d of dataJul 25

Related Markets

Who will Andy Burnham meet in person in 2026?

$40

Donald Trump: 95%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Next government of the United Kingdom?

Reform UK majority: 6%

KALSHI

NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?