Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2024-Q4 100%Leader of 11 outcomes
2024-Q4 100%Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jul 7, 24, 6:39 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
- Resolves YES if any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet in a listed calendar quarter (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep, Oct-Dec).
- Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.
- Losing one cabinet role when multiple are held (and thus remaining in cabinet) does not count as leaving.
- All cabinet members being replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election will resolve YES.
- The only cabinet positions that will cause this to resolve are those listed under the "Cabinet Ministers" section of the webpage above.
