If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 72.5%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:13 AM UTCJan 3, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach Donald Trump before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach Donald Trump before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the House impeach Trump again?
PredictItAny Senate-confirmed Cabinet member impeached this Presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWho will the House impeach first before 2028?
KalshiRules
Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. House adopts at least one article of impeachment against a sitting or former Cabinet-level official (the Vice President, the head of an executive department, or another official with Cabinet rank) between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- Impeaching the President does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
