If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach Donald Trump before January 3, 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.5%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Oct 7, 26, 2:05 AM UTCJan 3, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach Donald Trump before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the House impeach Trump again?
PredictItWho will the House impeach first before 2028?
KalshiWill the House impeach a federal judge this year?
KalshiRules
Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. House adopts at least one article of impeachment against Donald Trump between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the House changes.
