Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.7%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 26, 25, 2:37 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that at least one U.S. cabinet‑level official is or was acting as an undisclosed agent of the Russian government, and that this fact is credibly established before January 1st 2040.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “U.S. cabinet‑level official” means a person serving as:
- A Senate‑confirmed head of an executive department (e.g., Secretary of State, Defense, Army, etc.), or
- Any other official formally granted cabinet rank by the President at the time of the relevant conduct.
- “Strong evidence” requires at least one of the following:
